Deductible Instability

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Because interest to bondholders is tax deductible, while dividend payments to shareholders are not, lowering the corporate tax rate will reduce the incentive of all corporations including banks to raise capital by issuing debt. Assuming the top corporate tax rate falls from 35% to 25%,that would result in banks increasing their reliance on equity by…

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Delicious Daddy

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The Friday File: While female spiders are well known to eat their suitors following intercourse, the question has always been why. Turns out, spiderlings born of females that eat their partner have a 48% of survival while spiderlings born to females who don’t dine on daddy have only a 12% chance of survival. In this…

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Chinese Pork Purchase

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Shuanghui International Holdings’ purchase of Smithfield Foods for $7.1 billion, including debt, will be approved by federal regulators. This is because the relevant regulator, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS), only blocks deals involving national security. And bacon just isn’t a national security or defense concern. Moreover, given China’s chronic trade surplus…

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Bearable Budget Battle

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The budget deficit is falling rapidly and is now projected to be $642 billion, or 4% of GDP, in FY 2013. It was projected to be $200 billion higher just three months ago. This improvement will delay the next debt ceiling brawl from June to November. And with election season already starting by then, expect…

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Bet Your Fannie

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Including a one-time $50.6 billion adjustment, Fannie’s Q1 income was an amazing $58.1 billion! Even excluding the $50.6 billion, its ordinary earnings of $8.1 billion were outstanding. Assuming it does that well the rest of 2013, Fannie’s 2013 income would be $32.4 billion. That’s a bit behind ExxonMobile and Apple but ahead of Chevron, and…

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Painless Price Rise

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Despite the recent rise in house prices and residential shelter costs comprising 32% of the CPI, rising house prices won’t, in the short run, worsen inflation. This is because the CPI does not look at house prices, but rather the cost to rent a dwelling (owner-occupied or rented). And since house prices and rents are…

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Tax Unreform

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Between Benghazi, the heavy-handed AP data grab and the IRS fiasco, any tiny window for tax reform has all but shut. While Senator Baucus and Representative Camp, who head up both tax writing committees have 17 months until the next election, the combination of an uninvolved administration, 2014 being an election year, fierce lobbying against…

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Excellent Equities Environment

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The current bull market that began on 3/9/09 has lifted the S&P 500 over 146%, and now ranks as the fifth best bull market in history. It’s also within 10% of the fourth best rally of 157.70% that occurred between 4/28/42 and 5/29/46. The combination of steady growth, no inflation, low interest rates and no…

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More Mediocrity

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The good: the index of leading economic indicators rose, as did retail sales, consumer sentiment, and housing permits. The bad: Europe is now officially in recession, first-time unemployment claims rose, manufacturing activity declined, inflation as measured four different ways is non-existent, housing starts weakened, and industrial production and capacity utilization both fell more than expected.…

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Watch List

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The Friday File: In 2011, 1.15 billion watches sold for $30 billion. China sold the most, almost 700 million pieces, and at an average price of $2/watch; their industry was worth $1.5 billion. By contrast, the average price of the 30 million Swiss watches was $685/watch, making their industry worth $20.5 billion. Hong Kong was…

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