Taper Tiger

Given the government closure and resulting lack of economic data, the fact that Q3 GDP growth will be below 2% and that inflation remains very tame, virtually guarantees that tapering will not commence following the conclusion of the late October Fed interest rate setting meeting. Now with the formal nomination of Janet Yellen for the…

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Women’s Work

Full-time working women earned 76.5 cents for every dollar earned by men in 2012, virtually unchanged from 2011. Interestingly, pay gaps are narrowing for all but the youngest. Women 25 to 44 earned 80 cents, up from 74 cents in 1993. Similarly women 45 to 64 earned 73 cents up from 61 cents in 1993.…

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Debt Ceiling Catastrophe

The government shutdown, if short, will mildly depress Q4 GDP growth. The same can’t be said for failing to raise the debt ceiling. The government currently runs a $640 billion deficit/year, 4% of GDP, while GDP growth is 2%. If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, the budget must be balanced, thus federal spending would drop…

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Lower Limits

While Capitol Hill talks about housing finance reform, Fannie and Freddie’s regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is doing something. They have already repeatedly raised the guarantee fee borrowers pay to insure their mortgages are paid off should they default. Moreover, come 1/14 conforming loan limits for Fannie and Freddie mortgages may be reduced. These…

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Pricey Policy

To save lives, Congress requires all new cars and trucks to have backup warning systems to prevent the killing or injuring of pedestrians while driving in reverse. If installing a camera (the cheapest solution) costs $75/vehicle, the cost/life saved is $65 million!! It’s so expensive because all 250 million cars will need a camera before…

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Chemical Calculations

By entering into an agreement with Bashar Assad to destroy his chemical weapons, Obama is encouraging dictators to not only develop chemical weapons, but selectively use and trade them for respectability as needed. Moreover, by elevating the regime to that of a partner in a long disarmament process, a dictator that should have been punished…

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Big Bucks

In 2012, the top 10% (those with incomes above $114,000) collected 50.4% of all pre-tax income, the highest on record and up from 33% in 1977. Most of the gain was because the top 1%, those with incomes above $394,000, saw their income share rise from 8.5% in 1977 to 22.5% today. The share of…

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Fed Head Fiasco

The biggest loser in the current Fed Chairman Sweepstakes is the Fed. Simply considering Summers for the head Fed job politicizes a job that should be non-partisan. Arthur Burns, appointed by Nixon in 1970, was the last Chairman that was closely identified with one political party and he was a disaster. All evidence overwhelmingly shows…

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Going, Going, Gone!

The Friday File: After travelling for 36 years and 12 billion miles, NASA just confirmed that on August 25, 2012 (yes 2012), Voyager 1 became the first human-made object to depart the solar system. It’s so far from earth it takes 17 hours travelling at the speed of light to send/receive signals from Voyager. To…

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Oily Business

Crude oil prices are up 6% since Syria took center stage on 8/21/13. They had already risen 15% in the prior four months due to rising demand and a 2.7 million barrels/day (bbl/d) reduction in supply in August. But traditionally, demand falls by 2.4 million bbl/d in Sept/Oct, reducing world demand to 75.9 million bbl/d.…

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