Posts Tagged ‘GDP’
Chicago goes Monthly
Q4 GDP revised downward to 2.8% from 3.2% in line with the Fed Reserve Bank of Chicago’s monthly National Activity Index. It’s kind of like a montly GDP report! It’s been saying that the economy is growing, but too slowly. This is troubling given all the monetary & fiscal stim that exists and will soon…
Read MoreThe Good, The Bad, The Ugly
The Good: Fed lifted its GDP forecast for ’11 to a 3.4% to 3.9% band from 3.0%-3.4% based on minutes from Jan meeting. The Bad: Ongoing frustration with slow progress in the labor market compelled the Fed to say that accommodative monetary policy is crucial. The Ugly: mortgage apps for home purchases fell 5.9% the…
Read MoreMORE ON Q4 GDP
Q3 saw a boost to GDP due to inventories so the Q4 reversal must be seen in that light. Monday’s personal income & spending report gave details on how ’10 ended. Real personal consumer expenditure (PCE) spending rose 0.4% MoM in Dec but real personal disposable income was up only up 0.1%. How? Because consumers…
Read MoreCONSUMPTION DRIVEN GDP
While 3.2% GDP growth in Q4 is excellent it was driven entirely by consumption which makes up 70% of GDP. The other 30% of the economy fared poorly in Q4 essentially stagnating (a puny 0.2% annualized growth rate). So while the consumer enjoyed its fastest growth rate since Q1 ‘06, the rest of the economy…
Read MoreBulging Balance Sheet
In the past 3 years, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has expanded by $1.5 trillion yet nominal GDP has managed to rise by only $500 billion. Moreover, the U.S. public debt has exploded by about $5 trillion over that same time frame. This means that while the USA is 244 years old, over 1/3 of…
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