Posts Tagged ‘funniest economist’
Dismal Data
Last Friday’s labor report showing a gain of 74,000 new jobs, when 200,000 were expected, and a decline in the labor force participation from 63% to 62.8% (a 35 year low) was, no matter how you slice it, bad. That said, one month isn’t a trend and rising exports, the continued expansion in manufacturing and…
Read MoreBowled Over
The Friday File: Each of the last four teams to break the record as the highest scoring team in NFL history (’67 Oakland Raiders 33.4 points per game, the ’83 Washington Redskins 33.8 PPG, ’98 Minnesota Vikings 34.8 PPG, ’07 New England Patriots 36.9 PPG) have all failed to win the Super Bowl. This year…
Read MoreInteresting Impact
While interest rates are on the rise, so is economic growth. At this stage in the business cycle, growth has the upper hand. While rising interest rates dampen home buying activity, better growth and the concomitant increase in employment more than make up for it. That is why I expect new single-family construction activity to…
Read MoreIran’s Intensions
Any final nuclear agreement between the P5+1 and Iran must, at minimum, limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions to those of a civilian nuclear program with comprehensive monitoring so that any nuclear “breakout” effort would be lengthy and quickly detected. Its heavy-water plutonium processing facility in Arak must be closed. To enhance the probability of this, Congress…
Read MoreGood Growth!
The combination of November exports reaching an all-time high of $194.9 billion, the trade deficit narrowing to just $34.25 billion, its lowest level since 10/09, November’s factory orders rising 1.8% and October’s factory orders upward revision of 0.4%, and strong consumer spending is making me raise my Q4 GDP forecast to 3.1%. In Q3, GDP…
Read MoreSwinging Stocks
With small investors still largely on the sidelines, bond prices continuing to slide as interest rates rise, the number of large corporate stock buybacks declining, gold prices falling and corporate earnings expected to improve, I expect a rise in the S&P 500 of 7% to 10% this year. While P/E ratios are elevated compared to…
Read MoreCapers & Crooks
The Friday File: The biggest physical heist of 2013 involved one thief who stole $135 million in jewels in Cannes, France as they were being delivered to a hotel for display. The next biggest theft was an inside job where a group of thieves stole $50 million of uncut diamonds as they were being transferred…
Read MoreBetter Work
Despite little, if any, expected real wage growth in 2014, the jobs picture is likely to improve. This is because the percentage of new jobs in notoriously low paying sectors like retail trade, restaurants, temporary help and home healthcare should decline while the number of jobs in manufacturing, construction and other middle skilled jobs increases.…
Read MoreThank You!
I want to take this opportunity to thank every one of you very much for your interest in my daily blog and economics. All of you enrich my life in many ways and I am profoundly grateful. I wish you and yours the very best in 2014. May it be a year of full employment,…
Read MoreForeign Focus
Entering 2014, the biggest economic risks include China and its increasing dependence on debt to fuel slowing growth, followed by Europe which will struggle to keep the euro intact if a recession hits. But these problems are both remote. Here, outside of natural disasters and political risk, geopolitical problems scare me most. When great nations…
Read More