Beijing Bankruptcy

The decision by the Chinese government to finally let a domestic bond default occur is good, as it may force the market to start pricing in risk. But, investors have no idea why Beijing allowed this default or what criteria the government will use in determining future bonds defaults. Will firm size or industry matter…

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Understanding Unemployment

With unemployment at 6.7%, close to the 6.5% level at which the Fed has said it would raise short-term rates, the Fed must change its short-term interest rate guidance. The Fed is wrestling with how much slack exists in labor markets and if the swollen ranks of the long-term unemployed will keep wages down or…

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Greening of America

In the six New England states and Pennsylvania, the percentage of persons of Irish heritage is greater than 16% and in Boston it is 24.1%. By contrast in Louisiana, Texas, New Mexico, Utah and California the percentage is less than 8%. In the US 34.1 million people, 10.9% of the population, claim Irish ancestry, more…

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NCAA Nyet

The Friday File: There is a billion dollar prize for correctly predicting all 63 games in the NCAA College basketball tournament. Assuming you can guess the winner 70% of the time, which has never been accomplished, your chance of winning is one in ten billion (1/10,000,000,000). Lowering your chances of prediction to 60% which is…

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Terrific Traffic

In an incontrovertible sign of economic improvement, road congestion is rising. Nationwide, traffic was up 6% in 2013 and traffic jams increased in 61 of the nation’s 100 largest cities compared to just six cities in 2012. The bulk of the rise is attributable to increased truck traffic, not passenger vehicles. LA drivers nabbed top…

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Safe Scotland

On 9/18/14 Scots will vote on whether to leave the United Kingdom. Much has been made of the possibility that England won’t permit Scotland to use the pound sterling if they vote to secede. So what! Scotland can always peg their new currency to the pound, or — like Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama which…

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Weak Wealth

While household wealth hit a new high of $80.7 trillion in Q4 2013, up $9.8 trillion from 12 months earlier and up from $68.8 trillion before the Great Recession, on an inflation adjusted per-capita basis wealth is still about $500 less than it was at the peak in 2007. Moreover, because most of the rise…

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Funding Fannie & Freddie

By the end of this quarter, Fannie and Freddie will have paid the government $203 billion, slightly more than the $187.5 billion they received from the Government in their 2008 bailout. But 2008 was six years ago. Had the government charged shareholders a very reasonable 10% interest on the loan, F&F would owe another $93…

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Daylight Savings Silliness

The Friday file: Setting our clocks ahead by one hour this Sunday morning is a lousy idea. Not only does it increase traffic fatalities by about 6% and raise your chances of suffering a heart attack by 10%, it fails to reduce energy consumption. Turns out the added light causes us to drive more, use…

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Putrid Putin

With the Russian stock market skidding 11% and the Ruble falling 1.3%, Russia’s central bank was forced to boost interest rates by 1.5% to stem the Ruble slide. But higher rates will reduce an already slowing Russian economy and a weaker Ruble will boost inflation. This may be why Putin has stopped the Russian military…

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