Taper Tantrum

For the Fed to taper their purchases of Treasuries and MBS, GDP growth needs to be above 2.5%, net new job growth needs to approach 200,000/month, the annual inflation rate should be nearing 2%, and the unemployment rate should be below 7.3%. These thresholds are still a ways off. Thus, the probability of a December…

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Fed Faces

In addition to nominating Janet Yellen to be Chairwoman of the Fed, President Obama will soon nominate three, and possibly four, new people to soon-to-be vacant slots on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board of Governors, all of whom vote on interest rate matters. Among the nominees, expect at least one Republican, one woman, and one…

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Fed Head Fiasco

The biggest loser in the current Fed Chairman Sweepstakes is the Fed. Simply considering Summers for the head Fed job politicizes a job that should be non-partisan. Arthur Burns, appointed by Nixon in 1970, was the last Chairman that was closely identified with one political party and he was a disaster. All evidence overwhelmingly shows…

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