Disappearing Deficit

In the month of December, the US Treasury ran a surplus of $53.2 billion. What is remarkable is that over the past 10 years the December deficit has averaged $22.7 billion, and over the last five it’s averaged $61.7 billion. Last year the December deficit was just $1.2 billion. The improving economy and last year’s…

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Better Budget

During October and November 2013 the federal deficit was $231 billion, $61 billion better than a year earlier. Receipts were up by $34 billion to $380 billion and outlays were down by $27 billion. At this rate, the deficit for all of FY14 will be 3.3% of GDP, down from 4.1% in FY13 and a…

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Debt Ceiling Catastrophe

The government shutdown, if short, will mildly depress Q4 GDP growth. The same can’t be said for failing to raise the debt ceiling. The government currently runs a $640 billion deficit/year, 4% of GDP, while GDP growth is 2%. If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, the budget must be balanced, thus federal spending would drop…

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