Posts Tagged ‘entertaining economist’

Despite being about to begin the seventh year of an economic recovery, GDP growth has averaged a lackluster 2.2% the entire time, profoundly lower than in previous recoveries. The reason, a combination of slow labor force growth, primarily due to an aging population, and virtually no labor productivity growth due to firms not investing in…

In 3/07, the unemployment rate hit a cyclical low of 4.7%. Today it’s 5.4% and a rate of 4.7% will soon be reached. The question is when. Assuming employment growth of 211,000/month, the 3-year average monthly rate, the unemployment rate will hit 4.7% in 10.5 short months. Even with employment growth of 170,000/month, just 70%…

The Friday File: The Washington Nationals recently signed hurler Max Sherzer to a mind-blowing seven-year $210 million contract, payable over 14 years. Sherzer will receive $15 million/year. Beyond Sherzer’s performance, this is a bet on expected long-term inflation. If inflation averages 2% over the life of the contract, it’s worth $196.6 million. At 4% it’s…