Posts Tagged ‘Elliot’s Brief Blog’
Gimmie Growth
June’s trade deficit swelled 18.8% to $49.9 billion, the highest since 10/08 and much worse than economists (what do they know) predicted. If annualized, the June deficit would be almost $600 billion. That data along with recent inventory data suggest Q2 growth will very sluggish; 1.5%-1.7%. While certainly not recession territory, we have an economy…
Read MoreHow Much Government
Children Bicker, the small minded squabble. When these verbs are used to describe what Boehner, Reid or Obama do it’s implied that they’re arguing about trivia. NOT! They are adults with very different ideas trying to shape public policy as best they can. They argue about vast flows of $ and policies with huge consequences.…
Read MoreAirline Deregulation Hits Airlines
30 years after deregulation most airlines lose money. While high fuel prices don’t help they have only played a role recently. The key factors are plummeting demand following 9/11 that left demand weaker in ’09 than it was in ’00 and large cost difference between legacy carriers (LC) and low-cost carriers (LCC). LC costs have…
Read MoreAirline Bag Fees
US airlines collected $3.4 billion in bag fees in ’10, up 24% from ’09 according to a DOT report. Absent fees, airlines would probably be losing money. Las Vegas based Allegiant generated 29.2% of all their revenue from extra fees, more than any airline in the world. Among US carriers Delta generated the most revenue…
Read MorePro Sport, Small Impact
Despite its popularity, when compared to other industries, pro sports is very small. The $400 million recently paid for the Detroit Pistons is equal to the 468th ranked firm in the S&P 600 Small-Cap index (Stein-Mart). And Stein-Mart makes 10 times the revenue. When sports franchises try to shake down local governments for free stadiums,…
Read MorePolitical Problems Pemeate
A lack of progress over the U.S. debt ceiling and intensifying contagion concerns in Europe (Portugal, Spain and Italy may go the way of Greece and Ireland) have triggered a further flight-to-safety; equity markets are generally in retreat and quality government bonds are rallying. The weak job numbers make the possibility of QE3 more likely;…
Read MorePayroll Problems Persist
Nonfarm payrolls rose by a profoundly dismal 18K in June, way below the 125K gain expected by economists! Making things worse, job gains in May were revised down to 25K from 54K. The unemployment rate inched up by 0.1% to 9.2%. Government employment fell by 39K. If you include discouraged workers and those forced to…
Read MoreImplanted Explosives
The Law of Unintended Consequences: First our bodies and carry-on luggage were scanned before getting on a flight. Then, it was our shoes; still later it was gels and liquids. But to be successful terrorists must stay one step ahead of law enforcement. To that end, expect airport security to tighten up now that terrorists…
Read MoreDuty, Taxes and Behavior
While Americans are huge consumers of energy, Israelis are stingy. And, tax policy is why! The duty on all new cars is 100% (yes, 100%) and gas costs about $7.25/gal. As a result, most cars are small and get great mileage. Israeli’s also recycle 75% of their water (Spain’s next with at 25%). Coincidently, water…
Read MoreIsraeli Gas Prices
On the 2nd to last day of each month the Israeli gov’t determines the maximum price gas may be sold for the next month. So, on the 29th of June the gov’t announced that the maximum price gas may be sold for in July would be 8 cents less than in June. The cost of…
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