Posts Tagged ‘Elliot’s Brief Blog’
The Sound of Music
The Friday File: US album sales rose 3% in ’11, to 458 million; the first rise since ’04. Digital sales are why. They rose 20% (or by 20 million) to 103 million albums while CD sales fell 6% (14 million) to 225 million. The remaining 130 million albums consists of 1.3 billion single-track downloads, which…
Read MoreA Happy and Joy-Filled 2012!
I want to take this opportunity to thank you all very much for your interest in my blog. I also wish you and yours all the best for 2012. May it be a year of health, joy, laughter and prosperity — especially in risk adjusted terms.
Read MoreAre all Jobs Created Equal?
With the presidential primaries about to begin, what makes me nuts is watching Republican presidential contenders like Perry and Romney endlessly argue over who created more jobs as governor, including, gasp, government jobs. Yet out of the other side of their mouths they contend that only the private sector creates economic growth and that Obama…
Read MoreNo Help Wanted
The labor market is suffering from sclerosis. While employers are no longer firing workers – the percentage of workers laid off or fired in 10/11 was lower than in ’07, before the recession – they also aren’t hiring. Similarly, few of the employed are quitting their jobs. Usually about 2% of all workers quit their…
Read MoreProfits to Bank On
I am sure you will be delighted to learn that US banks earned profits of $35 billion in Q3 ’11, their best showing since before the recession. The up-tick is primarily due to banks putting aside less to cover bad loans, not due to interest from new ones; bank loan balances increased by just $21.8…
Read MoreCorny Ag Prices
Farmland prices have doubled since ’06. The cost per acre in IA is now almost $7,000/acre up 32% since ’10. Inflation adjusted prices are higher now than in the late ‘70s which precipitated the farm bust of the 80s. Prices are high because corn and soybeans have doubled in price since ‘06 due to demand…
Read MoreLet’s Make a Deal!
On 1/1/13 $1.2 trillion in spending cuts commence, the $3.8 trillion Bush tax cuts end and if the 2% Social Security payroll tax holiday is extended, it too will end. Including reduced interest costs these events reduce the deficit by $6.2 trillion over a decade. Moreover, they all occur unless a bipartisan deal to stop…
Read MoreGuns and Butter
With the troops all out of Iraq, we can now ask what the war cost. While not easy to estimate, if you include spending to date, VA costs, veterans disability payments, interest on the war debt, foreign assistance, future medical and disability costs and added homeland security costs one easily arrives at a figure of…
Read MoreBudgeting Math
Since the Super Committee failed $1.2 trillion in mandatory budgets cuts, starting in ’13 and running through ’21, will commence. But, the $1.2 trillion in cuts are actually only $984 billion! The law assumed that by not borrowing $984 billion, interest costs would fall by $216 billion and that counts as savings! Social Security and…
Read MoreShop or Drop?
Consumers are spending but for how much longer? Over the past year disposable income is down, savings has fallen from 5.3% to 3.5%, household net worth has fallen by $2.4 trillion as house prices keep falling and credit card debt is up. Luxury spending is strong but chain-store sales were down in Oct and Nov…
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