Dry Policy

The Friday file: Since 1940, raisin farmers have been required to give away a percentage of their crop to the Raisin Administrative Committee. The RAC annually decides how many raisins are needed and confiscates the rest. In 2003, farmers forfeited 47% of their crop! In a case now before the Supreme Court, raisin farmers are…

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Painless Price Rise

Despite the recent rise in house prices and residential shelter costs comprising 32% of the CPI, rising house prices won’t, in the short run, worsen inflation. This is because the CPI does not look at house prices, but rather the cost to rent a dwelling (owner-occupied or rented). And since house prices and rents are…

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Tax Unreform

Between Benghazi, the heavy-handed AP data grab and the IRS fiasco, any tiny window for tax reform has all but shut. While Senator Baucus and Representative Camp, who head up both tax writing committees have 17 months until the next election, the combination of an uninvolved administration, 2014 being an election year, fierce lobbying against…

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Excellent Equities Environment

The current bull market that began on 3/9/09 has lifted the S&P 500 over 146%, and now ranks as the fifth best bull market in history. It’s also within 10% of the fourth best rally of 157.70% that occurred between 4/28/42 and 5/29/46. The combination of steady growth, no inflation, low interest rates and no…

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More Mediocrity

The good: the index of leading economic indicators rose, as did retail sales, consumer sentiment, and housing permits. The bad: Europe is now officially in recession, first-time unemployment claims rose, manufacturing activity declined, inflation as measured four different ways is non-existent, housing starts weakened, and industrial production and capacity utilization both fell more than expected.…

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Watch List

The Friday File: In 2011, 1.15 billion watches sold for $30 billion. China sold the most, almost 700 million pieces, and at an average price of $2/watch; their industry was worth $1.5 billion. By contrast, the average price of the 30 million Swiss watches was $685/watch, making their industry worth $20.5 billion. Hong Kong was…

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Of Interest

The interest rate setting Federal Reserve Open Market Committee always includes the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the President of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) NY. The remaining four members rotate among the Presidents of the other 11 FRBs. For policy purposes, the rotating members don’t matter. Moreover, Governors Fisher, Lacker and…

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Unintented Consequences

Forcing Congress to obtain health insurance through exchanges is bad policy. Because they get excellent coverage, Congress would push for top-flight exchange healthcare. This would encourage employers to drop their plans because their employees could get great congressional quality subsidized coverage. And, that would raise the cost of the subsidy! Worse, if exchange plans are…

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Scared Debtless

In Q1 2013, total household indebtedness fell to $11.23 trillion, 1% lower than in Q4 2012 and way down from the peak of $12.68 trillion in Q3 2008. Mortgage debt now stands at $7.93 trillion, HELOCs are at $522 billion, student loans are at $986 billion (yikes) and auto, credit card and consumer loans total…

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Economic Models

The Friday File: Female models like Heidi Klum and Bar Rafaeli make millions annually, yet there isn’t even one famous male model. I think this is this because women spend much more on fashion and cosmetics than men. Moreover, they get their purchase ideas from fashion magazines which are full of beautiful women. Thus, the…

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