Hot Houses

With house prices soaring by double digits and investors buying large numbers of homes, there is suddenly talk of another housing bubble. I doubt it. Affordability is still remarkably high, credit is being extended to only the best borrowers, and housing inventory, which is exceptionally low, has probably hit bottom and will now rise and…

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Making Bank

The key problem holding Europe back isn’t high interest rates, it’s the weak condition of their banks and thus their unwillingness to lend. Exacerbating the problem is that in Europe banks are the basically the only source for money and as a result, they hold 80% of financial assets. Here, by contrast, banks hold just…

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No Free Lunch

With the Fed, the Bank of England and recently the Bank of Japan engaging in massively expansionary monetary policy, central banks in South Africa, India, Australia, Poland, Korea, Denmark, Israel and elsewhere are lowering their interest rates too. They are doing this to stimulate growth and in some cases prevent their currencies from appreciating and…

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Politics and Pipelines

In an upset, the British Columbia Liberal Party narrowly won re-election over the left-leaning New Democratic Party. Importantly, the biggest plank in the Liberal’s platform was backing pipelines to transport oil and gas from Alberta through BC to the Pacific coast, as well as the building of tanker terminals. Now, since oil from the tar-sands…

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Disappearing Inflation

Adding to the low inflation environment we’re in, is Japan’s central-bank bond buying. By reducing the value of the Yen by about 20% in just a few months, it has made buying Japanese cars and other Japanese goods cheaper. And that puts downward pressure on prices of substitute goods. For example, to hold domestic market…

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Deductible Instability

Because interest to bondholders is tax deductible, while dividend payments to shareholders are not, lowering the corporate tax rate will reduce the incentive of all corporations including banks to raise capital by issuing debt. Assuming the top corporate tax rate falls from 35% to 25%,that would result in banks increasing their reliance on equity by…

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Delicious Daddy

The Friday File: While female spiders are well known to eat their suitors following intercourse, the question has always been why. Turns out, spiderlings born of females that eat their partner have a 48% of survival while spiderlings born to females who don’t dine on daddy have only a 12% chance of survival. In this…

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Chinese Pork Purchase

Shuanghui International Holdings’ purchase of Smithfield Foods for $7.1 billion, including debt, will be approved by federal regulators. This is because the relevant regulator, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS), only blocks deals involving national security. And bacon just isn’t a national security or defense concern. Moreover, given China’s chronic trade surplus…

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Bearable Budget Battle

The budget deficit is falling rapidly and is now projected to be $642 billion, or 4% of GDP, in FY 2013. It was projected to be $200 billion higher just three months ago. This improvement will delay the next debt ceiling brawl from June to November. And with election season already starting by then, expect…

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Bet Your Fannie

Including a one-time $50.6 billion adjustment, Fannie’s Q1 income was an amazing $58.1 billion! Even excluding the $50.6 billion, its ordinary earnings of $8.1 billion were outstanding. Assuming it does that well the rest of 2013, Fannie’s 2013 income would be $32.4 billion. That’s a bit behind ExxonMobile and Apple but ahead of Chevron, and…

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