Changing Faces

By 2018, non-Hispanic whites under 18 will be less than 50% of the population under 18, with Hispanics, Asians and blacks collectively being the majority. By 2043, more than half the entire US population will be Hispanic, Asian or black and by 2060, more than half of the population over 65 will be Hispanic, Asian…

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Furlough Farce

With federal workers averaging $108,500/year in salary and benefits, if all 820,000 furloughed federal workers never came back, the total savings to the Treasury would be $90 billion/year. In a budget of roughly $3.5 trillion, that’s just 2.6% of all spending. Even as a percentage of the $642 billion FY13 deficit, a reduction of $90…

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Lower Limits

While Capitol Hill talks about housing finance reform, Fannie and Freddie’s regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is doing something. They have already repeatedly raised the guarantee fee borrowers pay to insure their mortgages are paid off should they default. Moreover, come 1/14 conforming loan limits for Fannie and Freddie mortgages may be reduced. These…

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Spectacular Sailing

In a remarkable comeback, Team USA reeled in eight straight wins to capture the America’s Cup competition 9 to 8. They actually won 11 races but were docked two wins for infractions before the series began. The $300 million US entry, Oracle Team USA, which sailed at speeds of 50 mph, was financed by Larry…

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Pricey Policy

To save lives, Congress requires all new cars and trucks to have backup warning systems to prevent the killing or injuring of pedestrians while driving in reverse. If installing a camera (the cheapest solution) costs $75/vehicle, the cost/life saved is $65 million!! It’s so expensive because all 250 million cars will need a camera before…

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Petroleum Pricing

In a sign domestic oil prices are expected to fall in the future, the price of futures contracts on West Texas Intermediate oil are cheaper the further into the future the settlement date. Futures prices are usually higher than current prices because futures prices must include storage, carrying costs and more. Reasons for this inversion…

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Loathsome Lawmakers

After excluding 590,000 postal employees and 1.4 million active military personnel, that leaves 2.15 million civilian non-defense federal workers. Should the government close, 40% of them, or 860,000, would stay home as they are non-essential. A one month shutdown would probably knock 1% off GDP and a two month shutdown would probably put us back…

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Manufacturing Mojo

While the number of manufacturing jobs in the US is rising, it’s primarily in sectors where plant is expensive, labor cost/item is low, and energy and transportation costs are high such as autos, chemicals, energy and refineries. However, where labor is a high percentage of total cost and energy and shipping costs per item are…

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Political Pay

The Friday File: To focus Congress on GDP growth, give members incentive pay. Pay them a base of $60,000 (median income) and incentive pay that rises with GDP. No bonus is paid until GDP growth hits 2%. Between 2%-3% they get a 30% bonus, from 3%-4% a 75% bonus, from 4%-5% a 200% bonus and…

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Bold Bernanke

In a surprising but gutsy move, the Fed will not start tapering this month. There are many reasons. The most compelling; the recent rise in interest rates needed to be checked as they harm the slow recovery, Congressional hijinks over the budget and debt ceiling look increasingly worrisome, an inflation rate that is worryingly low…

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