Posts Tagged ‘eisenberg and economics’
Declining Delinquency
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac report that the rate at which single family mortgages that are three months in arrears or in foreclosure declined to 2.77% and 2.79% respectively in June, down from all-time highs of 5.59% and 4.20% respectively in February 2010. While the rates are down 50% and 33% respectively, at this pace…
Read MoreIgnoring the Problem
Senator Warren’s proposal to make student loans available at just 0.75% actually exacerbates the problem. Cheap loans will increase the number of college applicants, allowing universities to raise prices, like builders did during the bubble because credit was easy. The underlying problem is the rising cost of tuition. A solution: force schools who accept cheap…
Read MoreEconomic Do-Over
The 14th comprehensive benchmark revision to all GDP accounts from 1929 forward will be released later this week. The revisions will probably show faster recent GDP growth bringing it line with improved employment numbers in 2012, higher labor productivity growth, higher household savings rates and higher personal incomes. In short, households will be found to…
Read MoreFinance Failure
While the House and Senate work on competing bills to fix our broken housing finance system, where 91.2% of new mortgages are government backed, reform is years away. A Congress that can’t pass a budget, an immigration bill, or an Agriculture bill, and that is hurtling towards yet another ruinous debt ceiling fight, certainly doesn’t…
Read MoreGreener Greenback
The dollar has been dramatically strengthening against most currencies of late and this will hurt US exports by making them more expensive in local currency and boosting imports, worsening our trade deficit. It’s happening because as our economy strengthens, interest rates will rise, making our currency more desirable to hold. By contrast, interest rate increases…
Read MoreBleak Greek
While the US economy is not great, be grateful you don’t live in Greece. Unemployment there is 27.4%, youth unemployment is a staggering 58% and car registrations are down 80%. This is because GDP is in its fifth straight year of decline and by the end of 2013, will be back where it was in…
Read MoreSexual Evolution
The Friday File: Plants and pests naturally evolve in an arms race of resistance and conquest that usually has no winners. But grafted trees, because they don’t reproduce sexually, are genetically identical to each other and thus never evolve. However, the pests that prey on these trees continue to sexually reproduce and therefore evolve. Thus,…
Read MoreDisappointing Data
Given a widening trade deficit, disappointing retail sales, weak inventory accumulation and now yesterday’s surprisingly bad housing starts at just 836,000 units, I’m reducing my Q2 GDP estimate to just 1%. Interestingly, single-family starts, 2-4 unit starts, and 5+ starts have all lost ground and are each at their lowest level since 8/12. Second half…
Read MoreSinking Senate
While the Senate is indeed broken, preventing the minority from filibustering presidential nominees to the executive branch will make things worse by beginning to turn the Senate into the House, where the minority party has no power. The Senate must be a check on the House. Instead, force those wanting to filibuster to speak non-stop,…
Read MoreVarying Interest
All interest rate increases aren’t created equal. A rise in 10-year treasury rates from 2%, where they are now, to 3% or 4% is a sign of improving business conditions and opportunities resulting from a strengthening economy. By contrast, a rise in rates from, say, 5% to 7% or 8% is a sign of an…
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