Posts Tagged ‘eisenberg and economics’
The Great War
During the seven and a half months the US fought in WWI, 116,516 American soldiers were killed, almost 9% of all US war deaths and more deaths than in all US wars combined since, with the exception of WWII. During WWI another 204,002 soldiers were wounded. As three million men were drafted, almost 4% of…
Read MoreGambling Gambit
The Friday File: 3% of gamblers provide 50% of casino revenues, and 10% of gamblers provide 80% of all revenues. Over a two year period, among the 10% of customers who gambled least, 17% wound up ahead, while just 5.4% of the heaviest gamblers were winners. Because skill is involved, poker odds are better. About…
Read MoreTaper Tantrum
For the Fed to taper their purchases of Treasuries and MBS, GDP growth needs to be above 2.5%, net new job growth needs to approach 200,000/month, the annual inflation rate should be nearing 2%, and the unemployment rate should be below 7.3%. These thresholds are still a ways off. Thus, the probability of a December…
Read MoreTaxing Solutions
While corporate tax reform is admittedly a longshot, here are two ideas that should rank high in any effort. Eliminate the business deduction for interest payments so that debt would not have more favorable tax treatment than equity. Second, require all firms with $100 million or more in sales to pay the corporate income tax.…
Read MorePowerful Production
Industrial production (IP) is now less than 1% below where it was before the start of the Great Recession. The decline in production was 17%, and so far it’s taken us 70 months to almost recover. By comparison, it took 50 months to return IP to where it was before the 2000 recession and 89…
Read MoreInterest in Inflation
With year-over-year inflation in Europe running at just 0.7%, and core inflation at a record low of 0.8%, the European Central Bank should seriously consider an interest rate cut at their meeting this Thursday. While it won’t improve weak bank lending, it would weaken the overvalued euro, boosting exports. It’s better to prevent deflation because…
Read MoreCorporate Criminals
The Friday File: Despite the tremendous economic and political strides made by women in many sectors of the economy, they remain shockingly underrepresented in corporate crime. Between 2002 and 2009, fewer than one in ten defendants was a woman. Moreover, in all cases when there was just one person involved, it was always a man.…
Read MoreScary Savings
The latest economic treat, the budget deficit fell to just 4.1% of GDP in 2013, the lowest level since 2008. Revenues were 16.7% of GDP, while expenditures were 20.8%. Rising revenues accounted for 79% of the deficit decline in 2013. The trick will be getting the annual deficit below 2.5% of GDP. As long as…
Read MoreQuantitative Easing
QE is not “printing money” as it does not increase the amount of money in circulation. Handing out $100 bills would be printing money. By purchasing Treasuries and MBS, the Fed raises the price of those securities and thus lowers interest rates. And lower rates can certainly result in an increased desire to borrow. But…
Read MoreJobless Recoveries
In recessions between 1950 and 1982, GDP always fell by more than employment, and as a result productivity per worker declined. Starting with the 1990-91 recession, things reversed. In that recession, GDP declined 1.2% yet employment fell by 1.7%. In the 2001 recession, GDP fell by 0.3% while employment fell by 1.2%, and in the…
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