Posts Tagged ‘econ70.com’
Dibilitating Debt Service
Interest on the federal debt is 1.4% of GDP; $200 billion. But, it is projected to ramp up fast for 2 reasons. 1st we add $1.4 tillion to it every year and 2nd interest rates are at historic lows. If the annual deficit remains unchanged for 3 years and if interest rates double interest on…
Read MoreTreasury Yields, Stay!
There seems to be widespread view that Treasury yields will rise sharply once QE2 is over since the captive market for bonds, the Federal Reserve, will be gone. Wrong, wrong, wrong! The only way Treasury yields will increase is if we have an accelerating economy (not), rising credit demands met by increases in bank lending…
Read MoreOil Up, GDP Down
Our economy can’t catch a break. Last spring the European debt crisis derailed any chance of a recovery; now it’s oil. Prices have surged due to fear of violence disrupting oil supplies and the fear that political instability in the ME will persist. Every $10 rise in oil raises gas by 25 cents and that…
Read MoreLOSING LONDON
On the Data Front: December consumer spending surprised to the high side at 0.6% (consensus was 0.3%) and oil is down from its lofty heights on talk of increased supply coming out of Riyadh. Gold is also down based on the illusion that Germany will bail out the whole Club Med area. However, the big…
Read MoreCONSUMER CONFIDENCE?
26 I think consumers felt better as ‘11 got underway. According to the latest Conference Board survey the index came in better than expected in Jan. rising to 60.6 from 54 in Dec. But, the Univ. of MI Consumer Confidence survey showed a near-two point dip in Jan. To put the CB’s Jan reading of…
Read MoreMoney, Money, Money….
Despite recent enthusiasm real incomes are under pressure. With the 0.5% hike in the December U.S. CPI, real wages fell 0.4% and have fallen in 3 of the 4 last four months. The pace over the past 6 months is now running just 0.15% above zero; way below the 3.6% trend of mid-2010 & the…
Read MoreHappy New Year!
I want to take the opportunity and wish you all the best for 2011. To health, happiness and prosperity — especially in risk adjusted terms.
Read MoreDown Jones Industrials
10 From a historical standpoint, the yield on the S&P 500 (2%) is very low. This smacks of a market top and underscores the point that the market is too optimistic; investors are willing to forgo yield because they assume that they will get return via the capital gain. The last time S&P yields were…
Read MoreGross Deficit Product
Our annual deficit is 10% of GDP. A deficit of 3% is sustainable (trust me) and 2% of the deficit will melt away as the economy revives; leaving a deficit of 5%. Had the Bush tax cuts been repealed that would have reduced the 5% to 2.5%. What this means is that Congress has to…
Read MoreFarming for Funds
If there is a positive theme that transcends the weak U.S. economy it’s ag! Farm incomes are way up & indications suggest more increases in ’11. This is due to increasing demand for food, especially proteins, from rising living standards in China, India and other emerging economies. The latest evidence of this was in the…
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