Dueling Data

recessionFinancial indicators such as yield spreads between investment grade bonds and junk bonds, equity values, inflation rates, Treasury yields and commodity prices suggest a weak economy and a moderately high recession probability. Yet car and home sales, employment growth, job quits, loan delinquencies, income growth, and now consumer spending suggest continued unspectacular growth and a low likelihood of recession. I put the chances of recession at a relatively low 25%.

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  1. Forrest Harstad says:

    Edsel, who has an astounding track record at predicting recessions many months in advance, including nailing both the beginning and the end of The Great Recession to the month, predicts the next one to arrive in 2019 or 2020.

  2. Tim McLean says:

    I would suggest your initial indicators are early warning signs of recession.

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