Posts by Econ70
REALTOR RATES
The current average U.S. real estate commission is 5.49%. The listing agent receives an average of 2.83% while the buyer’s agent receives 2.66%. For a $400,000 home, that works out to a commission of $21,960. Hawaii has the lowest average commission at 4.78% followed by Utah at 4.90%. The state with the highest average commission…
Read MoreINFLATIONARY INCREASE
March CPI rose 3.5% Y-o-Y. This is unfortunately the 10th month in a row that headline CPI has been trendless and rangebound between 3.1% and 3.7%. The lowest reading since the 2021 inflationary rise was 3.1% back in 6/23. Moreover, core CPI, which since peaking in 9/22 has fallen every month except 3/23, rose from…
Read MoreRECESSION RETURN
In 1989, the Fed’s last rate hike was in 6/89 and 13 months later a recession began. In 2000, the lag between the Fed’s last hike and the recession was 10 months. In 2006, the lag was 18 months. And in 2018, the lag was 14 months. The median and mean are both about 14…
Read MoreROCKIN’ REPORT
U.S. employers added a very strong 303,000 net jobs in March, the best level since 5/23, and there were upward revisions to January and February of 22,000. Better yet, the workweek rose, the labor force participation rate increased from 62.5% to 62.7%, and wage growth slid from 4.28% in February to 4.14% in March. Strong…
Read MoreBEDAZZLING BASKETBALL
The Friday File: To watch Iowa’s Caitlin Clark is to watch, by far, the greatest women’s college basketball player ever. She’s an inspiring and sublime generational talent whose scoring, passing, and rebounding ability defy words. In her most recent Elite Eight victory over LSU, she contributed directly to 80% of Iowa’s field goals, mind-numbing! Her…
Read MoreABODE APPRECIATION
Compared to the 2006 Housing Boom peak, home prices are currently 71% higher. However, after accounting for inflation, home prices are just 10% higher. Thought of slightly differently, nominal home prices are exactly double what they were in 2004. That works out to a compound annual growth rate of 3.6%. While housing prices went crazy…
Read MoreLOUSY LOTTERIES
On 4/3/24, a drawing for a $1.09 billion Powerball jackpot will occur, the fifth largest. While the chances of winning are one in 292 million, Americans spent over $100 billion in 2022 buying lotto tickets and it’s mostly the poor. In the poorest 1% of zip codes, the average adult spends about $600/year or 5%…
Read MoreEXCEPTIONAL ECONOMY
The economy continues to pleasantly surprise, to wit, 24Q1 GDP growth is being revised up, and thus rate cuts keep getting delayed. What’s going on? Several things. The rise in home prices and equities is slightly boosting consumer spending. Second, immigration is meaningfully higher than we think. Income to undocumented workers is not reported, hurting…
Read MoreMACROECONOMIC MAGIC
In a move hailed as genius, the Disney Corporation is beginning to plan and break ground for a new theme park called Econoworld. It aims to combine the magic of Disney with the unbridled excitement of macroeconomics and piggyback on the growing profile of macroeconomics. Like EPCOT, there’ll be various areas devoted to, in this…
Read MorePOWERFUL POLITICIAN
The Friday File: This past Wednesday, former senator Joseph Lieberman died; he was 82. His political career began in the Connecticut state house in 1970. In 1988, won election to the US Senate, becoming the first Orthodox Jew in the chamber. He then became the first Jewish candidate on a national ticket of a major…
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