Weaker Work

August payrolls grew by 187,000, and June and July were revised sharply down and now show growth of 105,000 and 157,000, respectively, the first three-month sub-200,000 stretch since mid-2019. The unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8%, and wage growth slid from 4.4%/year to a still too high 4.3%/year. So far OK, but these declines aren’t occurring in a vacuum and the impact of tighter monetary policy is just beginning.