Despite (finally!) passage of the $900 billion Covid-19 pandemic relief bill into law, 21Q1 GDP will rise by, at best, 2% because said aid has come late and the pandemic remains largely uncontrolled. But the aid will help as time goes on, interest rates remain at rock bottom levels, savings rates remain elevated, and vaccination rates steadily rise. After a slow start, GDP should end 2021 up about 4.5%.