If Congress and the President fail to reinstitute a federal top-up to the expired $600/week in enhanced unemployment benefits, by January GDP will decline by 1.25%, one million jobs will be lost, and the unemployment rate will rise by 0.75 percentage points. If the top-up is $300/week as per Trump’s recent and temporary executive order, GDP falls by 1%, 750,000 jobs are lost, and the unemployment rate rises by 0.60%.