Possible Probabilities

While US equities continue recovering lost ground, markets may be discounting two key risks. The first, a powerful fall Covid-19 wave, let alone the current rise in new case counts in AZ, CA, FL, TX and elsewhere. Second, markets appear to be ignoring polls suggesting Democrats will almost certainly keep the House but now have a 50/50 chance of picking up the Senate and better odds on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

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