Understanding Unemployment

With recent job losses totaling slightly over 30 million and with millions more to come, assuming no one leaves the labor force, the unemployment rate will peak at 24% in 20Q2. Assuming 10 million persons quit the labor force, unemployment will peak at 18%. If net employment growth averages 800,000 jobs/month, four times the norm, in 20Q3 through 21Q4, unemployment will end 2021 at 11.5%, still high but much better.

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