Improbable Inflation

Falling commodity prices, massive unemployment, vacant office space, unused manufacturing facilities, and cheap energy suggest weak inflation or even deflation are likely going forward. But spectacularly large increases in the federal deficit and huge jumps in the money supply suggest inflation and even high inflation is probable. I bet with 95% confidence low inflation is what results. The wildcard, a post-election new Fed chair that bends to political pressures.

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