Continued Contraction

Continued Contraction In 20Q1, GDP probably declined at an annual rate of 5%. In 20Q2, the decline will be an ugly 24%. In 20Q3 GDP grows by 2% and in 20Q4 by a strong 7%. In total, GDP will contract by 5% in 2020. While some see a V-shaped recovery, a U-shaped or a checkmark-shaped recovery is more likely given policy implementation problems, ongoing struggles battling Covid-19 and the inevitable delays reconstituting businesses.

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