With France, Italy and Japan contracting, the UK and Germany flatlining, China’s GDP taking a sizable hit due to COVID-19 (along with airlines, energy companies, tourism, luxury goods, transportation and manufacturing), it’s hard to see 20Q1 US GDP growth exceeding 1%, half what it has been. Moreover, the virus is now in Japan and especially South Korea, which exports a staggering amount of intermediate goods, inputs for global supply chains.