Jun
11

Downturn Data

Among many, there is a belief that economic expansions behave like people. That is, the longer an economic recovery, the greater is the probability of a recession. This is based on the fact that older persons are, all else equal, more likely to die than younger persons. Except expansions don’t behave that way. The chances of a recession occurring are totally uncorrelated with the length of the preceding expansion.

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