Inversion Implications

Since 1/1/1978, there have been five inversions between 3-month and ten-year Treasuries. Each inversion lasted months, moreover each recession began, on average, 627 days after the initial inversion. The shortest gap: 293 days, the longest, 1,073 days. Assuming the current inversion that began on 5/13/2019 persists, and assuming the average recession lead time, the next recession will likely be in early February 2021, and possibly as early as March 2020.

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