Yukky Yield

  Yesterday, rates on two-year and three-year Treasuries rose above the rate on the five-year Treasury, which probably lead to substantial algorithmic trading. While this isn’t a full-fledged yield curve inversion (YCI), which refers to the yield on the two-year Treasury exceeding the ten-year, this mini inversion isn’t to be ignored, as it has generally been followed by a YCI. And a YCI has preceded each recession since the late 1960s.

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