Oct
16

Recession Rates

While predicting the cause of the next recession is impossible, here are probabilities based on all recessions in the seven largest democracies since 1960.  26% of the time it was monetary policy, next came bursting of a credit bubble at 17%. Third was an oil price shock or the bursting of a housing bubble, each at 12%, and banking crises was next at 10%. Monetary policy is my bet.

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