The Saudis won’t reduce oil production, Iraqi output rose by 900,000 bbl/day last year with output likely to continue to increase in 2016, and Iranian output is set to surge by at least 600,000 bbl/day. Add to that weakening global growth led by China and the strengthening dollar, both of which crimp demand, and it all but guarantees reduced US oil production in 2016 but without a meaningful price rise.