January’s NAHB/Wells Fargo builder confidence index was 60, unchanged from December but down from the recent peak of 65 in October. Moreover, after hitting 57 for the first time since the housing bust in 12/13, the index has moved sideways despite starts rising 16% and single-family starts rising 18%. This suggests prior builder over-optimism, along with increasing starts concentration among fewer builders and continued modest rising future starts growth.