Guessing Growth

growthQ2 GDP will come in below 3%. While inventories were a killer in Q1 they will help in Q2, as will a return to normal weather. There will also be extra spending due to rebounding demand following the Q1 cold snap. The major problem, trade! Because the USA is (with few exceptions) growing faster than the rest of the globe, imports will rise faster than exports, clipping 0.25% off GDP.

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