Payrolls & Exports

In 2011, monthly payroll growth averaged 174,000 in 2012 it averaged 186,000 and 194,000 last year. This year I expect employment to be at least as strong as in 2013. Moreover, I’m only mildly concerned about weakness in emerging markets because US exports to all developing economies equal 4.5% of GDP. Thus, if exports to those nations shrink by 20%, that’s a 0.9% hit to GDP; tough but survivable.

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