Jobs Make the President

If current economic conditions persist, Obama will win with 50.2% of the vote according to a widely followed economic forecasting model. The key will be job growth numbers from now through August. Midyear growth was strong in ’72, ’84, 96 and ’04 and incumbents won. But was weak in ’76, ’80 and ’92 and incumbents lost. If you want Romney, sub 2% GDP over the summer months should do it.

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