Markets are currently pegging the odds of a government shutdown this Friday at midnight at 30%. If there is a shutdown, the average duration of the 11 that have occurred since 1977 is less than 4 days, and the cost to the economy is between $1 billion/day and $1.5 billion/day, with the losses rising the longer the closure. If it lasts a week, Q1 GDP would be cut by 0.15%.