Talk of the UK ending up with “no-deal” on trade from the EU is rising, but it’s rubbish! Absent a deal, the UK would instantly enter a recession, and by 2030 British GDP would be 10% or $8,300/person lower than with a deal. But, the hit to the EU would also be substantial; 2.25% or $2,000/person. It’s irrational for the UK to suggest it will walk. It can’t afford to.