From 1914-2006 there were 19 interest rate rising cycles. We’re now in the 20^th. In 16 of the 19, a recession followed, meaning 84% of the time a recession followed a sustained rise in short-term rates. However, since WWII there have been 14 rate rising cycles and a recession followed only 11 times. The Fed is improving; the chances of a recession have fallen to just 79%. What a relief!