Dueling Data

recessionFinancial indicators such as yield spreads between investment grade bonds and junk bonds, equity values, inflation rates, Treasury yields and commodity prices suggest a weak economy and a moderately high recession probability. Yet car and home sales, employment growth, job quits, loan delinquencies, income growth, and now consumer spending suggest continued unspectacular growth and a low likelihood of recession. I put the chances of recession at a relatively low 25%.

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