Dec
30

Fine Forecasting

crystal ball While forecasts are generally worth less than the paper they are printed on, if you want to try forecasting, read Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Fast and Slow. A close second is Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. And for those who are gluttons, read Scott Armstrong’s Long-Range Forecasting. Good luck, you’ll need it! My forecast is that your forecasts will, like mine, generally be wrong!

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