70 Words on the Economy. Daily.
The Friday File: Baseball's 3 teams with the highest payrolls are watching the playoffs on TV. The Yankees ($202.6 million) were upset by the Detroit Tigers ($105.7 million), while the Philadelphia Phillies ($172.9 million) were upset by the St Louis Cardinals ($105.4 million). The Boston Red Sox … [Read More...]
The Nobel Prize in economics was awarded to Tom Sargent at NYU and Chris Sims at Princeton. Sargent's work has helped us understand the impact of permanent changes in economic policy. Sim's research has helped us measure the effect of temporary changes, or shocks, on the economy. Sims said he was … [Read More...]
The stock market has fallen by about 10% in the last two weeks, destroying about $2 trillion of wealth. If the market does not rebound quickly this will cut GDP by about $70 billion; half a percent. Here's why. Suppose you just lost $10,000 due to the market decline, will you cut your annual … [Read More...]
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell 4.4 points to 50.9% in July, the worst reading since 7/10; barely above the 50% mark signaling growth. Since 4/11 the ISM has fallen 9.5 points; the worst 3-mth skid since 9/08-11/08 when Lehman failed. Other parts of the ISM like new … [Read More...]
Federal budgeting is nutty because the federal budget assumes every item in the budget automatically rises annually regardless of economic conditions by somewhere between 3% and 10%. Based on this insanity if we simply freeze spending at the current level and do it for a decade, the Congressional … [Read More...]
Since hitting a low of 9 million in annualized auto sales in 2/09, strong demand has propelled new-car sales to 15.3 million as of 5/13. However, sales have flat-lined of late and are barely higher than in 1/13. This is in part why manufacturing growth is weakening. Yet automakers are cranking out … [Read more...]
Despite a US Energy Information Administration report that global oil reserves are 10% higher than in 2011, due to the discovery of 345 billion barrels of shale oil, don’t expect lower pump prices. This is because unlike Alaskan oil, shale oil comes from hundreds of small wells, with high … [Read more...]
The Friday File: With fear of inflation finally receding, the new concern is deflation. While high unemployment keeps wage growth in check, the price for sage business advice has absolutely tanked. Last year, lunch with Warren Buffet was auctioned off for a record $3.5 million; this year, just … [Read more...]
With the Obamacare requirement that most employers offer affordable health insurance to their employees soon to become law, expect total employment to rise and hours worked/worker to fall. This is because employers will force their employees, where possible, to work less than 30 hours/week. But … [Read more...]
With house prices soaring by double digits and investors buying large numbers of homes, there is suddenly talk of another housing bubble. I doubt it. Affordability is still remarkably high, credit is being extended to only the best borrowers, and housing inventory, which is exceptionally low, has … [Read more...]
The key problem holding Europe back isn’t high interest rates, it’s the weak condition of their banks and thus their unwillingness to lend. Exacerbating the problem is that in Europe banks are the basically the only source for money and as a result, they hold 80% of financial assets. Here, by … [Read more...]
This past week of economic data had something for everyone. For bulls, it was an improving non-manufacturing sector, higher auto sales and record breaking household wealth. For bears, it was a weakening manufacturing sector, a worsening trade deficit and a decline in mortgage applications. The best … [Read more...]
The Friday file: Ever wonder why US credit card technology is substandard compared to Europe and Asia? The answer, cheap phone calls. Because calls here are cheap, credit card transactions are called in for authorization. In Europe, where state-owned monopolies charge a fortune for each call, the … [Read more...]
With the Fed, the Bank of England and recently the Bank of Japan engaging in massively expansionary monetary policy, central banks in South Africa, India, Australia, Poland, Korea, Denmark, Israel and elsewhere are lowering their interest rates too. They are doing this to stimulate growth and in … [Read more...]
In an upset, the British Columbia Liberal Party narrowly won re-election over the left-leaning New Democratic Party. Importantly, the biggest plank in the Liberal’s platform was backing pipelines to transport oil and gas from Alberta through BC to the Pacific coast, as well as the building of … [Read more...]
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is a nationally acclaimed economist and public speaker specializing in making the arcana and minutia of economics fun, relevant and educational. He holds a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University, as well as a Masters and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Dr. Eisenberg, formerly a Senior Economist with the National … [Read More...]